At end of May 2020 we learn that CDC, Centers of Disease Control in the US, who advise on disease spread, prevention, and reopening times, have been confusing and conflating results of tests for current coronavirus infection, with those designed to test for antibodies in a person's system, indicating prior infection with some degree of immunity. Care needs taking over figures or generalisations. J.P. Morgan report that 'many countries saw their infection rates fall when they ended their lockdowns - suggesting that the virus may have its own dynamics which are unrelated to the emergency measures.' We don't know enough. I've been wondering whether there are other factors that somehow combine in certain circumstances, and could be quite variant. A stray account appeared of a few CV type cases in France in November, before most of us heard of Wuhan. Maybe there's an ebb + flow effect, rather than a horrible geometric progression. Political and business links shed doubt on the motivation of how some of this was handled. It is easy to smear people, but of concern when there seems a basis for allegations or links to corruption of one kind or another. One can only guess at possible leverage. I would leave that there, but in one fell swoop, our Government have lost credibility they need. People mostly have the sense to stay careful. I just bought some cloth masks to wear for transport and shops, so as not to appear a risk to others.
In the End Times lead-in to this post, I wrote that the contagion of coronavirus is not a myth or conspiracy. A London ticket-collector and her colleague were spat at by someone infectious. One of them died. A family of 7 got together in US for a reunion, and 5 died. One could be forgiven for wondering if this thing is some kind of curse. Some of us have wondered whether Governments should be trying to legislate over personal relationships the way they have in UK, but I see the reasoning. Now there is some relaxation or change in emphasis (woolliness?) over some activities and business, we could be heading for more problems over interpretation or risk. You might be tempted to think countries or groups would pull together, help each other out a bit, certainly not go out of their way to withhold information or supplies, risk sabotage of some people's survival, or humanity. Maybe that is what this is really about. Or it's about professional pride or prestige, bees in bonnets, small cliques who stick together with their own kind, and their specific type of reality.
In UK we were led to think that every 21 days would see a review of the measures. That would be yesterday, 6th May. Instead, we wait with baited breath for a Sunday announcement, while newspapers and cleverclogs second-guess with their stuff. Other people have put conflicting headlines side-by-side, saying it's an attempt to test the waters. On a personal level, I get stuck near the front door to intercept promised deliveries that don't actually arrive, or they suddenly do without warning. All this tech, yet tracking ain't great; just accept what we get.
An interesting factor is how people trend in their behaviour, like flocking to queue at the council garden waste tips the minute they reopen. Or a section of us rebel, or attack anyone who murmurs 'Wouldn't it be nice to... ?' I don't want people questioning what I wish for my safety or peace of mind, nor would I attack others. Distancing is weird, and we're in for a long time of it. People walking down the street close together, chatting and laughing, are red-rag to a bull to some not as fortunate. Might some people regress to playground behaviour, or simply snap out of control, I wonder? Could some of this have been handled better? Was any of it orchestrated, socially engineered, by those who know how? It's easy to criticise in an impossible situation with so much at stake. Some conundrums do appear to be an unnecessary imposition, likely to increase inter-group tensions.
So today I am sounding off due to too much time online, trying to get my head around how things are, and likely to be, only to find more mazes. Now that is some design. Imminent remedy is less time online, with mud pies 'n' gardening in the pipeline, when the stuff comes. What did we complain about before?
Some worthy people manage to get us laughing, with a cartoon or a different slant on things. Now that's a welcome gift. I don't normally adhere to the theme of Follow the Money, though it can be revealing. I do think it worth finding out what motivation lies behind certain actions, or the spreading of outright lies to confuse or damage some, while protecting others. Some people research and spread things about individuals and their links, and I've been the first to accuse them of tarring too many with the same brush. People do good and bad things, sometimes misguidedly, sometimes because someone has leverage on them. When clever people deliberately obfuscate, somewhere there has to be collusion, planning, reckoning, and exit strategies. When other clever people question what's happening, with an agenda of their own that could be anything, watch out. Don't get caught in the crossfire.
+ # + # + # +
Many people face going to work in conditions not deemed safe for the rest of us. Having done 45 years of various jobs, some nice and some a living hell, I am not involved now, and can only imagine the fear, added to the usual unpleasantries and uncameraderie. I think of myself as cushioned in a sense. Many are not.
Yesterday I caught a tweet by someone whose information is more reliable than most, saying 'First in Sweden, now in Germany. Replacement theory is a conspiracy theory.' It leads to an article at voiceofeurope.com by Michael Lord, 6 May 2020:
'A pensioner in Germany was fighting in court against his local council's decision to evict him from his home to make room for migrants. The court has now upheld the council's order.' It is called property confiscation. The pensioner is 75 and in poor health, and lived there for 25 years. He used to help migrants find accommodation. He faces a smaller flat, apart from losing his home. The fact that this deals with housing migrants is not the key issue here.
I've wondered about this kind of situation, or whether people can be forced to accommodate someone in their home, like billeting. My parents lived through WW2, went through their troubles and came through like others. It showed in many ways, like storing food in the garage (as we're now doing), along with gallons of paraffin or petrol (which we are not!).
Other countries fare worse with oppressive regimes, and serious food and water shortage. Our situation may not be to our liking or comfort, but when there is a strong backlash, we do effect some changes or reversals. Meanwhile, a number of outspoken individuals face unpleasantness, pressures, or having their online platform deleted. Stay Safe.
Neighbours or a local network can be a godsend, but the other side of the coin is more people stuck, seeing their home, marriage, career or business go for a burton, not knowing where money will come from to pay bills and get food in. Unemployment in itself is one thing, and happened to a lot of us during Recession when whole swathes of industry just folded. There was generally a time when something would come up, although part-time. Zero-hours contracts were not deemed an option or forced on people, nor were totally unrealistic and unreasonable work conditions. Now people often face the Horns of a Dilemma.
Government advice has been that people can't meet up with a partner they don't share a home with, which hardly seems enforceable. Nor is it viable to expect people in the shielding group not to share the same spaces as those they live with. The strictures are not realistic, hence double-binds. We are either incapable of conforming, or unlikely to, being denied things that other people are forced into. Who is advising on these things? You don't give people no choice if you want to get anywhere, and if you make it patently obvious others are in a different ballpark entirely. Talking of parks, there was a lessening of restrictions over driving somewhere to go for a walk or exercise. However I just saw an accusatory headline about people sitting in groups, quite a way from any other group, in a nice big park in glorious sunshine. What is wrong with that? A designed strategy? It reminds me of a boss we had, who said one thing and promptly did the opposite, the sum total of which made people talk about him a lot. Everyone else got made redundant while he stayed on in the big-name company for many-a-year. Neat, prophetic even. Stay tuned.
This is not conspiracy theory or hype. Many NHS staff are without protective wear, or getting their own where they can, and are not meant to speak out. Now there is speculation that this could lead to an investigation into the possibility of corporate manslaughter. Some people are told to go back to their workplace, as there is 'no more risk than going shopping', while most of us are in lockdown risking consequences if not complying. You may not favour Robert Peston's approach, but he highlights a scenario where contact tracing via App could mean individuals (plus their families), made to stay indoors for 2 weeks if shown to get close to someone infected. Let's be clear: they cannot get tested for CV unless they also have symptoms. (Who makes this stuff up? It's like an improvised playground game.) There are no reliable tests to show if someone has antibodies, or may/not be capable of infecting others, or the coronavirus may/not recur in them over 'X' number of months or years. Cleft stick time. Do you think people in the know, Know we are Snookered? On CV testing itself, people are expected to drive long distances to a Centre - don't even think of it if you've no transport, a self-test kit is shoved through the car window, and people are unsure if they did the test right. Some people receive a kit through the post to carry out themselves. I think I'm right in saying that key workers do not get informed of the test results. Clearly, things are not very clear. A kicker is that a substantial number of rushed-through test results were useless, as there was no means of checking whose they were.
Your own experiences and observations could be different. It's complicated, and sometimes one hears or reads something that is in conflict, or simply does not give a full enough picture. We don't need to fall out over details, but do need to aim for a wider view. What is meaningful to each of us matters. Some people may not be as concerned as others about personal belongings, or a particular home. What those may represent or mean does matter, and can keep people from caving in when everything else falls down around them. Why would anyone make rules that are too divisive, or likely to make people fail somewhere? That seems to be the flavour of the day. If rule-makers don't know the answers or have no 'cure', allowing or encouraging rumours makes a poor sandwich filling. If they have an agenda, let's hear it.
If it is basically a matter of where a line needs drawing, somewhere, between different age-groups, different types of work, different housing or health needs, it is understandable to a degree. Confusion reigned early over who came into a category of vulnerable, because some people have health conditions, or have undergone types of treatment that signal they need special consideration. They are said to need shielding, are not meant to go outside the home, and to be on priority lists for home shopping deliveries, or having someone deliver provisions to them. Confusion still reigns because, despite some good intentions and best efforts, things don't always go according to plan.
Whether people aged 70 and over were meant to be included, went a bit awry due to speculation. In a sense, one can see the relevance, as they may need more care or hospitalisation if they do catch CV. So may anyone else, but we're talking statistically. The Sunday Times published an article with a misleading headline, prompting a Sunday rebuttal on Twitter, no less, from spokesman Matt Hancock, that there would be no 'blanket ban' on people over 70 in terms of being confined to home: They must utilise social distancing while out doing essential shopping or exercising, like everyone else is meant to. Let's see what happens if that gets altered. (Recent digging shows that vulnerable is again being linked to over 70's, so that was quick.) People understand that the NHS and hospitals could risk being overwhelmed in some times and circumstances. If certain groups are categorised as being needy or problematic, and others are excluded as being something else, where does it all go? If someone aged 70 gets pigeonholed as likely to be too vulnerable, shouldn't go out, or make their own decisions, do we stick a label round the neck of all of them, tell them they can't do anything from now on, put them into a Home? - where their health is more at risk, statistically? Many have lived through good and bad times, bringing up families for whom they cared and took responsibility. I can imagine what my father would have said, and my mother when she got going. Even I don't know the full extent of their experiences.
What is really going on here? Why are snippets like this being leaked to selected audiences with media presence? For a reaction probably. Because the retirement age has recently been raised to not-far-off 70 for some, and there have been times when a significant proportion of MP's in responsible posts had a good number of years under their belt. For the record, I cannot abide psychological game-playing, politics ditto. Calling me left- or right-wing and anything else, gets lost in my cloth-ears. Now please look up the person appointed to handle the Test and Trace programme. (I just had enough for one day, and can't think up a funny line, so here is a pic.) The situation has since become even more farcical; the system is not yet viable.
But that is when people seemed to become more judgmental and divisive. Computers were more widely available, so you had a lot more information, having the opposite effect to a greater acceptance of others. People could be anonymous online, develop a new persona or style. Companies saw computers as a cue to drastically streamlining the workforce, displacing many trusty workers who were their backbone. It's a pity some were not kept on to check procedures and stop huge gaffes. Story for another day, but are people not concerned when there's no option to the Internet for many crucial things that they need to do?
We appreciate there is a skeletal bus service of a kind, more like an arm and a leg really, which will probably be subsidised from somewhere. Food shops are open if you can stand standing in a queue outside in hot sunshine, wind or rain. It just took me 5 hours to do a bus journey that used to take 1+1/2 to 2 hours. Everywhere is quiet, closed with notices, but hopefully some of that will change. Why did I go out? I sought legal advice first, and went on the strength of that. It was sad to see shopping centres completely closed, all the charity shops, and people's cherished businesses shuttered, maybe for all-time. The grass verges, with loads of cow parsley and people's lovely hedges, made the trip memorable. That is the state of things on Saturday 9th May. So let's see what Boris-man decides tomorrow, without it going through Parliament first. Now that is not a first. But we still have water, drainage, and most waste bin services. It will take gearing-up before other things are operational, and I imagine shops and petrol stations will not get enough throughput for some time. Habits and circumstances have changed so much, and there will be some knock-on effects, predictable and novel. Towns and cities relying on plenty of students, tourists, holiday-makers, have whole streets of cafes, bars, restaurants. It's hard to see that enough ways around the coronavirus situation will be found to keep them profitable. Snookered indeed, but who can tell? Traditional department stores were already floundering due to high expenses, but they were a draw to shoppers looking for something special. Some popular chains of stores have already thrown in the towel, having just opened up in new shopping outlets.
As we and other countries consider opening up some garden centres and DIY shops, people who think lockdown was the safest route, are naturally concerned: 'It' will be back, worse than before. In other countries, tensions have exploded across a vast range, too much to condense or comprehend, as if this is the humdinger to light the touchpaper for people, sooner or later. This sounds doomladen, but humanity often does surprising things, and will find ways to come through.
If you think plans don't ever get overturned if there's enough hue-and-cry, ask Virgin Money about their recent decision to block credit card accounts of 32,000 customers, at a time when such companies are meant to be more lenient. A lovely U-turn is on the way for 32,000 folks. It sounds as if the company were forced to retract by some overseeing body. At least things work out sometimes.
Skateboards at the Ready
On Monday 11th May, some people are encouraged (overnight) to return to work, and avoiding public transport, so long as theoretically they maintain social distancing of 2 metres, and whilst there. A 50-page document and further statements are due. Comments on online groups are divided, condemning others' confusion. I suggest you do the best for your own situation and safety, and get the best information and advice you can on working conditions and what seems reasonable. Raise any particular concerns, keeping notes of dates, and any responses, to refer to when others have shared their experiences. Some things can be worked out, or will develop over time. How parents feel about their children returning to school, I can only imagine.There will be some good advice online. Many people juggle the needs of family members, people needing support, having a job or not, and what they feel they can or cannot do in normal or abnormal times. Citizens Advice and AgeUK have good websites. StepChange offer advice on money worries. There will be more people advising, and needing advice, on practical matters and legal conundrums. What I feel would have been better, is if we could have been given recommendations or guidance, rather than rules & punishments, and the variant leaks of plans. For whose benefit, when half don't get to first base? Baffled, you could say. It reminds me of school prefects, some good and some not, or workplace supervisors and managers, ditto.
Regarding individuals in the shielding group for health reasons, I saw a point today that suggests people who were originally asked to shield for 12 weeks, should continue to stay at home until the end of June. (Now it looks like some of it may end on 1st June.) Search for your specific condition or circumstances. Newspapers have speculated that some people were informed by text that they will no longer be shielded, or qualify for special food parcels under the Government scheme. This seems a gross exaggeration, but changes do appear to be afoot, and some in the shielding group may be able to go outside with someone helping them. How rumours do fly.
For anyone who was struggling with stress before, or is finding it hard to cope now, this is very natural. See @Helplines_UK on Twitter for some organisations offering information and support, and there are informal groups online as well. There are some natural comedians around or crazy animal pics, to keep things rolling if you don't want/can't stand reruns of Coronation Street and The Bill. Did I mention Hawaii Five-O?
Puzzler
Am having trouble understanding the dynamics of an online group. It's bound to be a mass of individuals with different experiences and views, and people have sparred with each other before. Some people are attacked, whatever the posts, and it could be a political divide. My thing is to dive in as a newcomer and start chatting anyhow. When I posted a comment, the chain vanished, reappearing with a curt reply that it was for experts to decide. Then someone posted an 'official line', which turned out to be sarcasm! I raise things as talking points, or in case they might help someone. I try not to confuse. Let's just say, I am not sure that the guy apparently in charge on the informal group, actually has final say, for all it appears.I may sound critical of much that's been done or decided, but we seem to have more choice over managing our personal lives. A scheme to supplement finances of a section of laid-off workers is extended to October. Otherwise responsible reporting is still scaremongering about over 70's being unable to pay cheques in. Things are very unequal, with some people being forced to work despite their health conditions. The safety of work and travel environments is of concern. Cars are an advantage that many people do not have. Some who do, probably will not be able to keep up with the expenses. Understandably, some Police have raised concerns about their role, with people OK to gad about to garden centres and drive around. It seems likely that people mixing with others who mix with others, is problematic for the spread of infection in some, with severe repurcussions for a minority. Cooping people up in enclosed spaces has turned out risky for them and those working with them. We learn as we go along. In a classic case of information overload, not to mention some inconsistency -
Get good advice.
Having looked at more online sparring, it seems the new, more complex, rules are not just for guidance, but have loosened up some avenues, with some (those who can) being more free to get/remain outside for relaxation/luxury reasons. Others are required to have 'reasonable' excuse or reason for going out, or face a larger fine with the possibility of a criminal record if defending themselves and not winning. It's like trying to unravel a knotted ball of string, thinking you're getting somewhere, yet getting into an ever-tightening net. Did you ever read Knots by R.D. Laing, or The Divided Self?
The Chief Scientific Adviser for the Department for Education warns that wider opening up of schools would bring together hundreds of potential vectors that could lead to an increase in the spread of CV. Exactly, and that is why we need to stay alert and manage risks, while getting on with our lives as best we can, without fear of unnecessary fines or confinement to our homes.
Infantilising Us All
On my wanders round the few open shops while waiting an hour for a bus, there have been nice encounters like we used to have. I got chatting to an elderly gent who had to sit down, unable to manage the queue to get into Wilko. This time, as I got closer to the door, all customers were required to use hand sanitizer provided by a smiling male staff member, way too close to everyone - a tabletop width. Think of those extra vectors, and that guy. I came across 3 male constables zealously engaging a elderly lady who'd parked a bit unwisely. She gave as good as she got, but it was a game to them and upsetting for her. Should we be making people conform to the game of the day? Half the seats in the bus station are now taped off, with nowhere to get a coffee or pop. Many people wear masks and I wonder if they are full of germs. It seems to signify defeat or lack of engagement. Sad to say, even more shops are closed with no sign of reopening. Yet it's OK to risk children going back to school on 1st June, rather than think in terms of September term? I leave commenting on how a large number of CV tests went missing, to those more knowledgeable in that area.No-one wants to see unnecessary risks, but we should look at how things are going. Those struggling to get food in perhaps for a frail partner, will get by while they can comply and adapt to ever-changing rules. People with long-term conditions, or not as psychologically resilient in these circumstances, risk going under without support. The strong or those who play the system and sustain their digital gadgets or transport, will likely manage better, though most of us will feel overwhelmed at times. It is disturbing that church buildings are closed, but could one person chime a bell weekly or play a recording of bells? These things mean so much. A nice touch in a local pub is a lantern left shining in every window. We are fed pseudo-family scenes and foody pics as reality, and banks being ever-so-helpful. It all makes work for those ad-men to do. I try to weigh consequences of a bus journey, and then stay away from any shops etc. for 10-14 days, even if we're out of milk; no extra trips out for plants from the market. I wish. If you have a neighbour who engages with people who engage with others, be a bit careful.
Think vectors.
An idea to increase interaction without excessive risk is social bubbles,
where people extend their close group in a limited way, to add variety
and support. If you can't do that or don't like the idea, maybe you can
find a new interest or online course, so as to increase the vectors in
your life another way. It helps us to navigate, get our bearings in
these restricted times. Some people turn out risky to one's wellbeing,
and some good plans/advice go awry. There are undercurrents or rhythms
in our lives that we know nothing of. Ever had those strange
coincidences?
Bent Out Of Shape
You could say that every view on this coronavirus bends it out-of-shape some more, because CV has a strange way of attaching itself to other physical conditions. Eventually some of it will come together. Try not to overdo things all the time. This is bound to be stressful for those stuck in less than favourable circumstances; get some respite where you can. People are emphasising a toll on our mental health, but it's more a matter of being in an unprecedented situation.It transpires that some people suffer various symptoms from CV for several weeks, some requiring hospitalisation. Some could be after-effects of a severe viral infection, and there may be a strange cyclic aspect. It resembles other debilitating or painful illnesses that baffle sufferers and clinicians alike.
It is inappropriate to scaremonger, but recent messages online suggest we are opening up too many aspects too quickly. Another wave is anticipated in 3 months' time, with possibly 3 months' lockdown to follow. Questions are being raised by workers in certain fields about instructions or information received. A new special hospital is being built, when present facilities have hardly been used.
Human Rights
There are currently issues over journalists and their right or opportunity to attend some briefings, to voice a particular view, or ask certain questions. People in some key jobs are not meant to raise their concerns. We did have a human right to hold whatever view felt right for us, and to express that. At the moment, we are withdrawing from the agreements we had over Human Rights, with the inference that they can now be changed. Well yes, but does any of this get a proper airing?New rules brought in on 1st June 2020 for England are baffling, at a time when many avenues are opening up, like non-essential shops and mixing with more people outside (at a distance of 2 metres). People who don't actually live together are not meant to meet indoors for sex, holidays are vetoed, and no-one can stay overnight in a place not their main home. There are certain exclusions. Why these specific restrictions have been imposed during a relative free-for-all and use-your-judgment, I cannot fathom. The Telegraph of 1st June outlines configuration maps for meeting outside, along with news that Police cannot enter homes or gardens to force people to comply or leave, but you may get a fixed penalty fine. Best to pay it promptly or it's more expensive.
Irish hotels reopen on 20th July though perhaps not their bars. Much of this will need much sorting out by someone sharper/more patient than me. Any offers? Holidays and staying overnight are vetoed in England. Understandably, Wales and popular resorts wish that tourists and second-homers could be restricted to nearer their own main residence. There's a risk of CV spreading to their communities, a risk of fire spreading, some people abandon their cars if it suits them, meaning emergency vehicles cannot get through, and some leave appalling mess.
According to a Guardian article of 2nd June, an AI company linked to Vote Leave will be able to analyse data from social media, utility bills and credit ratings. Although many of us rely on clever devices to do useful or necessary stuff, see what you can ditch or keep separate somehow. You'll thank yourself if you get a virus not the CV kind, or the device, software or connection packs up. Think about those unhelpful banking chatbots, and crazy electricity estimates or readings. Algorithms should not be judge & jury. Check, or it could be Checkmate.
WHO to Believe?
After days of racial demonstrations across the World sparked by the Police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, when thousands of people threw coronavirus fears to the winds, the World Health Organisation WHO announced that asymptomatic spreading of CV is rare as a cause of new infections. Apparently most of it just doesn't spread that way. (Then that was revised.) It also appeared to conflict with various other announcements, including from CDC, Centers of Disease Control. Despite the thousands going on demos, it seems many people prefer caution, staying away from shops or work environments if possible. In England, we must wear some form of face covering on public transport from Monday 15th June or risk a fine. Some shops will quarantine items handled by customers, for 72 hours afterwards. Oxfam are reopening charity shops, announcing they will quarantine donated goods for 72 hours before putting them out for sale. So that's alright then? I believe WHO and/or CDC retracted some of their statements about catching CV from surfaces like cardboard. We don't know enough, or who to believe. Oh, staff working in hospitals in England must also wear masks from 15th June, as well as patients and visitors.
Reduce your risks, and those of the people around you. This CV thing has ways of its own.
Much of the above has changed, as at 14th June 2020. As a footnote, where we'd normally shop in a newish mall plus older street of shops, now we won't be able to change the direction we are going, or linger too long looking in shop windows. Having had none to browse for 12 weeks, many people are likely to forego the dubious pleasure. Shopkeepers are gearing up to reopen, with their hands pretty well tied. A number have said they cannot continue. Often, people investing in their own business, may have put up their home as collateral. It is a shock to all of us how quickly things hit the skids. It is not over!
